Insurance Company Profits by Taking the PISS!

Posted on November 3, 2026 by LivinginPeaceProject

Off the Top of My Head

By Paul Murray

The insurer sells certainty. The customer discovers uncertainty….and the customer pays for both.

There’s an old saying that insurance is something you buy hoping you’ll never need it. Having recently had the misfortune of actually needing it, I’d like to propose an amendment: Insurance is something you pay for religiously, hoping you’ll never discover what you’ve actually purchased.

Back in 2013, I wrote an article for The Rongolian Star entitled Insurance Companies…Who’s Watching These Crooks? It was a somewhat irreverent examination of an industry that has perfected the art of collecting money today in exchange for promises about tomorrow. Thirteen years later, I’m delighted to report that I’ve undertaken some extensive firsthand research into the subject.

Unfortunately, this research has cost me approximately $110,000 in insurance premiums, involved a failed septic system, several months of correspondence, an unsuccessful complaint to the Insurance & Financial Services Ombudsman, and the prospect of finding another $45,000 to repair something that worked perfectly well for almost six decades. All things considered, I wish I’d just gone fishing.

A maternity hospital, a septic tank and 60 years of uninterrupted service….

The Karamea Maternity Hospital and its hardworking septic system, 1965–2025.

In 1965, the New Zealand Government built a maternity hospital in Karamea, a small, remote community on the northern West Coast of the South Island. This wasn’t some ramshackle collection of recycled timber knocked together by a couple of blokes after a few beers. It was a government-funded public building, constructed to the high standards and engineering practices of the day, designed to provide essential medical services to the community. Naturally, it required a reliable wastewater disposal system.

A properly engineered septic tank and associated soakage field were installed, and for almost 60 years this unglamorous, but essential infrastructure quietly went about its business. Babies were born. Generations came and went. The maternity hospital eventually became an accommodation business and now a residential property. Throughout the building’s many metamorphoses, the septic system continued doing what septic systems are supposed to do. Until October 2025….When it stopped.

Not after years of observable progressive failure. Not following decades of complaints about its performance. Not because someone had suddenly decided to convert the property into a commercial sewage-processing facility. It simply ceased functioning satisfactorily.

A drainlayer investigated and identified a rise in the water table and associated groundwater saturation of the disposal field as the problem. Wastewater could no longer disperse through the ground as intended. The solution was straightforward, if financially rather confronting…Replace the failed system…Estimated cost: approximately $45,000…Bugger!

Still, I wasn’t particularly worried at first. After all, I’d insured the property continuously since 2004.I’d paid an estimated average of $5,000 a year in premiums. Over 22 years, that’s approximately $110,000. I hadn’t made a previous claim. Surely, I thought, this was precisely why people paid insurance premiums…No worries, just fill out a claim form and Robert’s your Mother’s Brother…Right?

The extraordinary difference between suddenly and…suddenly…

My insurer, NZI, a division of IAG New Zealand, declined the claim. The essential issue was whether the failure constituted sudden and accidental loss or damage covered by the policy. Now, I’m not a lawyer, but I do have a reasonable grasp of the English language. If something has been functioning satisfactorily for almost 60 years and then abruptly ceases functioning, I would ordinarily describe that as a sudden failure, but apparently, the insurance industry has a rather more sophisticated understanding of the word.

You see, a system can stop working suddenly without necessarily having suffered sudden physical damage. Its deterioration might have been gradual, even if the consequences became apparent all at once…And that is aapparently a perfectly legitimate distinction. But here’s where things become interesting…Nobody has established that the groundwater conditions responsible for this particular failure changed gradually. Equally, I cannot establish that they changed suddenly. Nobody knows.

The West Coast Regional Council’s hydrology department kindly supplied detailed information about the extraordinary rainfall events that affected Karamea in October 2025. The region had experienced an unusually wet winter and spring. Soils were saturated, river levels were elevated, and significant rainfall events occurred in October. At one monitoring station in the Karamea ranges, rainfall intensities exceeded estimated 50-year and 100-year return-period thresholds over six- and twelve-hour durations respectively. On 21 October, the Karamea River reached approximately 3,007 cubic metres per second, its highest recorded flow since 2013. There was, in other words, rather a lot of water about.

Unfortunately, nobody had thought to install a continuous groundwater monitoring station beneath the septic field of the former Karamea maternity hospital. An astonishing oversight! The council confirmed that its available groundwater measurements were too infrequent to determine whether there had been a rapid rise beneath my property during the relevant period. Measurements from another bore approximately 700 metres away could not automatically be assumed to represent conditions beneath my particular property. So the evidence cannot tell us precisely what happened.

But because I cannot demonstrate that the physical loss or damage occurred suddenly, my claim doesn’t satisfy the insurer’s interpretation of the policy requirements. The fact that the system suddenly stopped working is not, on its own, sufficient. Apparently, I should have been monitoring the underground hydrological conditions surrounding my septic system for the past 22 years. Perhaps I should also have employed a full-time geotechnical engineer, just in case….Silly me…I merely paid the premiums with the understanding and belief that if there was such a problem, I would be covered by the insurer.

Half a billion dollars here, a billion dollars there…

Now, let’s examine the financial circumstances of the organisations involved. IAG New Zealand reported an insurance profit of approximately NZ$563 million for the financial year ending June 2026. Its Australian parent, Insurance Australia Group, reported net profit after tax of approximately A$1.022 billion. Meanwhile, international insurance brokerage and professional services company AON reported approximately US$3.695 billion in net income attributable to shareholders for 2025.

Different companies, different currencies and different measures of profitability, of course. Aon is an insurance intermediary, not the underwriter responsible for deciding my claim. But the figures provide a fascinating glimpse into the enormous sums of money circulating through the insurance industry. Billions and billions and billions of dollars….

Meanwhile, down here in Karamea, I’m trying to find $45,000 to replace a failed septic system. To put that into perspective, $45,000 represents approximately 0.008% of IAG New Zealand’s reported $563 million annual insurance profit. Not eight per cent. Not eight-tenths of one per cent…Eight-thousandths of one per cent!

Of course, insurers don’t determine claims by comparing their profits with their customers’ financial circumstances. Nor should they. Insurance is a contractual arrangement, not a charitable donation. I understand that, but it does rather highlight the extraordinary financial imbalance between the parties. One side has billions of dollars in financial resources, extensive legal expertise, specialist assessors and entire departments devoted to interpreting risk.

The other side has a failed septic tank, a $45,000 bill and a reasonably well-developed sense of indignation. I know which side I’d back in a legal contest.

Justice for all…(Terms and conditions apply)

Having exhausted the insurer’s complaints process, I approached the Insurance & Financial Services Ombudsman Scheme. A free, independent dispute resolution service…Wonderful! Here, surely, was an opportunity for an ordinary New Zealander to have his complaint assessed without needing to mortgage the family home to pay a lawyer.

At a recent conference I attended, I heard New Zealand’s Chief Ombudsman, John Allen, speak about the importance of fairness, accessibility and equitable access to justice. It was an inspiring address. One of the messages I took from it was that access to justice should not depend upon how wealthy you are, how influential you might be or whether you can afford an army of legal advisers. An admirable principle.

Unfortunately, there’s a rather substantial difference between the principle of accessible justice and the practical reality of pursuing a dispute against a multinational insurance corporation. The insurance Ombudsman considered my complaint, examined the additional hydrological information and ultimately concluded that I had not demonstrated a sudden and accidental loss covered by the policy. The complaint was closed. I was informed that if I wished to pursue the matter further, I could take action through the Disputes Tribunal or the courts….Ah! The Courts! Of course! Why didn’t I think of that?

I’ll just engage a suitably experienced insurance lawyer, commission an independent hydrological investigation, obtain expert engineering evidence and prepare myself for a legal contest with an international insurance group. Perhaps I’ll retain a King’s Counsel while I’m at it! After all, what could possibly be more sensible than spending tens of thousands of dollars pursuing a disputed $45,000 insurance claim?

And there’s the rub. The suggestion that I can pursue the matter through the courts is legally correct. But legal rights and practical access to justice are not necessarily the same thing. I cannot know what the Ombudsman intended by offering that advice. It may simply be the standard explanation provided when the complaints process ends. Nevertheless, the practical consequence is unmistakable.

For someone without the financial resources to fund litigation, being told to take on a billion-dollar insurance corporation in court can sound remarkably like being told to go away. The door to justice may be technically open. But if you cannot afford the price of admission, what practical difference does that make?

The curious economics of insurance…

Insurance companies have a fascinating business model. They calculate risk. They price risk. They collect premiums to cover risk. They invest the money collected from managing risk. And when an insured event occurs, they assess whether the particular loss falls within the risks they have agreed to cover. That’s how insurance works…Fair enough.

But from the customer’s perspective, there is something deeply unsatisfactory about discovering, after decades of faithfully paying premiums, that the protection you thought you were purchasing may depend upon producing scientific evidence that never existed in the first place. I didn’t commission a hydrological survey when the property was insured in 2004. The insurer didn’t require one. Nobody suggested I should monitor groundwater levels. The premiums were accepted without difficulty. Year after year…For 22 years. But when the system failed, the absence of detailed scientific evidence became central to the question of whether the claim was covered.

And that raises a broader issue. Should insurers do more to explain, at the point of sale, the kinds of evidence policyholders may need to establish a claim involving older infrastructure? Should insurers undertake more comprehensive investigations before declining technically complex claims? And should the evidential expectations placed upon ordinary consumers reflect what it is realistically possible for them to establish? These seem to me perfectly reasonable questions. Especially when the insurer initially proposed an engineering inspection of the property but ultimately declined the claim without proceeding with that investigation.

Who’s watching the people watching the insurance companies?

There’s another curious dimension to all this. In October 2025, New Zealand’s Financial Markets Authority announced that IAG had admitted breaches of fair-dealing requirements involving misleading representations about insurance products. The resulting court-imposed penalty was $19.5 million. Those breaches were unrelated to my claim, and I make no suggestion that they establish wrongdoing in this case, but they do remind us that even very large, sophisticated financial institutions can get things seriously wrong.

Which brings me back to the question I asked in 2013. Who’s watching the insurance companies? And perhaps, just as importantly, how effective are the protections available to an ordinary customer who believes an insurer has treated them unfairly?

The Insurance & Financial Services Ombudsman Scheme provides an important independent service, but it operates within the law and the terms of insurance contracts. It cannot simply order an insurer to pay because a customer has experienced an unexpected financial catastrophe, and when that process ends, the remaining legal avenues may be financially impractical.

So where does that leave the ordinary person? Holding a policy. Holding a repair bill, and wondering what happened to the peace of mind they thought they’d been buying.

The insurer sells certainty. The customer discovers uncertainty…and the customer pays for both.

That, to me, is the central absurdity of this entire experience. For 22 years, I paid insurance premiums in the reasonable expectation that I was protecting my property against unforeseen misfortune. When misfortune finally arrived, the argument became one of legal definitions, evidential standards and whether the failure of a 60-year-old engineered wastewater system met the precise contractual requirements for cover. I understand the legal reasoning. I understand the insurer’s position. I even understand why the Ombudsman reached the conclusion it did, but understanding something doesn’t necessarily make it feel fair.

The system was constructed by the New Zealand Government in 1965, when the building was a maternity hospital. It performed its intended function for almost 60 years. It then stopped working during a period of unusually wet weather and significant hydrological activity. Nobody can now establish precisely how the groundwater beneath the property changed during that period, and because I cannot demonstrate the required sudden physical loss or damage, the claim has been declined…Case closed…Except, of course, for the $45,000 problem. That remains very much open.

A modest proposal…

Perhaps we should introduce a new form of insurance policy. We could call it Peace of Mind Insurance. Under this revolutionary arrangement, the insurer would clearly explain what is covered, what isn’t covered, and what evidence might reasonably be required to establish a claim. When a longstanding customer suffers a substantial and unforeseen loss, the insurer would undertake a thorough investigation before deciding whether to pay. Where the evidence is genuinely inconclusive, both parties would have a fair opportunity to understand the reasons for the decision and the realistic options available. And where a dispute arises, the customer would have access to a resolution process that doesn’t ultimately depend upon possessing a small fortune.

Radical stuff, I know! It might even catch on. Until then, I’ll continue contemplating the extraordinary irony of this shitty situation.

A septic system built by the New Zealand Government in 1965 gave almost 60 years of dependable service. An insurance relationship lasting 22 years, and costing approximately $110,000, has left me facing a $45,000 bill with no assistance. The multinational insurance industry continues to generate enormous profits, and I’m left wondering whether the only thing more thoroughly processed than the contents of my septic tank is my insurance claim.

The insurer sells certainty. The customer discovers uncertainty…and the customer pays for both.

From Sunny Karamea, where the birds are singing, the Tasman Sea is sparkling, the insurance industry is prospering…and shit is still hitting the fan!

The author provided IAG Ltd, the Insurance & Financial Services Ombudsman Scheme and NZI Insurance company an opportunity to give its version of events, they declined. However, in the email communication subsequently received, an officer of the Customer Complaint Division of IAG was not responsive to the content of this article.

Dear XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

I am writing to invite both NZI/IAG and the Insurance & Financial Services Ombudsman Scheme to comment on an article I have prepared for publication in The Rongolian Star, entitled “Insurance Company Profits by Taking the PISS!”

I have attached the complete 11-page draft article, including its illustrations and graphs, for your consideration.

The article concerns my experience with an insurance claim arising from the failure of the wastewater disposal system at the former Karamea Maternity Hospital, and the subsequent dispute resolution process.

It is written in my usual Off the Top of My Head style, combining personal experience, satire, humour and social commentary. While the language is occasionally colourful and the illustrations deliberately provocative, the underlying issues are serious.

Before publishing, I want to give both organisations a fair opportunity to review the material, correct any factual inaccuracies and explain their respective positions.

As outlined in the article, the property was constructed by the New Zealand Government in 1965 as a maternity hospital. Its wastewater disposal system operated reliably for almost 60 years before ceasing to function satisfactorily in October 2025, following an exceptionally wet winter and spring.

The estimated replacement cost is approximately $45,000.

I have maintained insurance on the property since 2004, paying an estimated $110,000 in premiums over that period, without previously making a claim.

NZI/IAG declined the claim on the basis that I had not established a sudden and accidental loss covered by the policy. The IFSO Scheme subsequently upheld that position, and Karen confirmed in her correspondence of 15 October 2026 that the complaint process had concluded.

I acknowledge the legal reasoning: the initial burden rests with the insured to establish a covered loss. I also accept that an abrupt loss of function does not necessarily establish sudden physical damage.

However, my continuing concern is the practical difficulty of proving the timing and mechanism of an underground failure when the necessary historical groundwater monitoring information simply does not exist.

The West Coast Regional Council’s hydrological evidence does not establish that groundwater beneath the property rose suddenly. Equally, it does not establish that groundwater conditions changed gradually. The available information is insufficient to determine precisely what occurred.

I am not suggesting that this uncertainty automatically entitles me to insurance cover. Rather, I question whether the investigation and evidential expectations were reasonable in the circumstances, and whether the resulting outcome reflects the protection that a longstanding policyholder might reasonably believe they had purchased.

The article also examines the financial disparity between a policyholder facing a substantial uninsured repair bill and a major multinational insurance group, along with the practical accessibility of legal remedies following an unsuccessful complaint.

I would particularly welcome your responses to the following questions:

  1. Accuracy: Does either organisation identify any factual inaccuracies, misleading statements or material omissions in the attached article, including its descriptions of the claim, the investigations undertaken and the complaint process?
  2. Investigation: Why did NZI/IAG not proceed with the engineering inspection that had initially been contemplated? Would an independent on-site investigation have assisted in establishing the physical condition of the wastewater disposal system and the possible cause of its failure?
  3. Evidence: What evidence would NZI/IAG reasonably expect a policyholder to produce to demonstrate sudden physical loss or damage in circumstances where historical groundwater measurements are unavailable?
  4. Hydrological uncertainty: Does either organisation dispute my understanding that the available evidence cannot reliably establish whether groundwater conditions beneath the property changed suddenly or gradually during the relevant period?
  5. Policyholder expectations: Does NZI/IAG consider that the policy wording and the evidence required to establish cover for failures of older underground infrastructure are sufficiently clear to ordinary policyholders?
  6. Dispute resolution: Does the IFSO Scheme wish to comment on the practical difficulties faced by complainants who cannot afford to pursue further legal action, even where the formal right to do so remains available?
  7. Illustrations and commentary: Does either organisation wish to respond to any particular representation, criticism or implication conveyed by the article’s satirical illustrations or commentary?

I appreciate that the insurer and the IFSO Scheme have distinct responsibilities, and I invite each organisation to address only those questions relevant to its role.

I also recognise that the IFSO process has concluded. This is not another request to reopen the complaint, but an opportunity to provide comment for a proposed publication examining my experience and the wider questions it raises.

I acknowledge the confidentiality obligations referred to in Karen’s correspondence of 15 October. I have sought to present my own account of events rather than reproduce confidential IFSO communications. If the Scheme considers that any specific passage of the draft raises a confidentiality concern, I would appreciate that passage being identified, together with the relevant basis for the concern, so I can consider it before publication.

Likewise, if either organisation considers that the article’s financial information, illustrations or descriptions of its conduct require correction or clarification, please identify the relevant material and provide the supporting information.

I would welcome a written statement from each organisation explaining its position. Please indicate whether your response may be quoted and attributed in the published article.

I propose to allow seven calendar days from receipt of this email for responses. If additional time is reasonably required, please let me know within that period.

I will consider all comments in good faith and make appropriate factual corrections before publication. I believe readers deserve to hear the perspectives of both the policyholder and the organisations involved.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

Kind Regards,

Paul Murray

Director, Iltamara Ltd

Writer and Publisher, The Rongolian Star

Karamea, West Coast, New Zealand

Attachment:Rongo RS Article DRAFT Insurance Company Profits by Taking the PISS.pdf (11 pages)

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Halley’s Trash Lights up Karamea Night Sky

Posted on October 16, 2026 by LivinginPeaceProject

Prepare for the invasion of the Orionids!

Off the Top of My Head

By Paul Murray

There are many reasons to get out of bed at four in the morning, although most of them involve livestock, small children or a distended bladder, but this October, the universe is offering another: the chance to watch tiny pieces of Halley’s Comet burn across the sky above Karamea.

The annual Orionid meteor shower is approaching its peak, and our relatively dark rural surroundings give us a useful advantage. All we need is a clear sky, a warm jacket, maybe a campfire and the willingness to exchange a little sleep for something rather wonderful. Oh, and of course, we’ll also need a clear sky.

Despite the familiar expression “shooting star,” no stars are falling out of the sky. A meteor is the brief streak of light produced when a small piece of material from space enters our atmosphere at tremendous speed and disintegrates. The object in space is a meteoroid; the light show is a meteor. If a fragment survives to reach the ground, it becomes a meteorite, but most shower particles never get that far.

A meteor shower happens when Earth crosses a stream of debris travelling around the Sun. Think of a comet as a rather untidy visitor, leaving dust along its orbit. When our planet encounters that dusty trail, some of the particles hit the atmosphere and briefly announce their arrival.

The Orionids come from debris shed by Halley’s Comet. Their entry speed is about 66 kilometres a second…a fairly efficient way to turn a small speck into a memorable event. Some leave a glowing trail that lingers after the initial flash.

Halley last visited the inner Solar System in 1986 and returns in 2061. Fortunately, we do not have to wait for the comet itself: its scattered debris provides this annual October encounter, and another shower, the Eta Aquariids, in May. Cosmic recycling has its attractions.

Set the alarm…carefully

The Orionids are active from 2 October to 7 November, with the main peak expected around 21–22 October 2026. For Karamea, I would pencil in the early mornings of Wednesday 21 and Thursday 22 October. Thursday morning follows Wednesday night; it is easy to lose a day when reading overseas astronomy advice.

This year there is a complication. A bright, waxing Moon will wash out fainter meteors while it is above the horizon. The best compromise is to watch after moonset, before dawn begins to brighten the sky.

For central Karamea, approximate times in New Zealand daylight saving time are: Wednesday 21 October: Moon sets about 4.00 am; the first astronomical dawn light begins about 4.55 am. Thursday 22 October: Moon sets about 4.25 am; the first astronomical dawn light at this time of year begins about 4.50 am.

That makes Wednesday’s roughly 4.00–4.55 am window particularly useful, even though Thursday is the morning following the commonly advertised peak night. On Thursday, try about 4.25–5.00 am, understanding that the sky starts gradually brightening around 4.50. Brighter meteors can remain visible as twilight develops. Sunrise is much later, around 6.30 am; darkness starts slipping away well before the Sun appears.

These are calculated times for an open horizon, rounded for practical use. Hills, trees and your particular viewing spot will change when the Moon disappears. Get settled 20–30 minutes beforehand. If only one morning is clear, take it: the peak is a forecast, not a performance scheduled to the minute.

To find the Orionid meteor shower, look towards the eastern to north-eastern sky in the early hours of the morning. Orion, recognisable by the three bright stars of his belt (also known in New Zealand as the Pot), provides a useful landmark. The meteors appear to originate from a point near Orion, but they can flash across any part of the sky, so find a comfortable spot with a wide, unobstructed view and enjoy the spectacle. The best viewing from Karamea should be in the hours before dawn, when Orion is higher in the sky.

Around 4.00 am the radiant will be in the north-north-east, roughly 27 degrees above a level horizon. By 5.00 am it will be closer to north and about 31 degrees up. Three clenched fists stacked at arm’s length give a rough guide to 30 degrees.

You do not need to identify every star, or stare at that one spot. The meteors can streak across a broad area of sky. Recline, look roughly halfway up the sky and let your eyes take in as much as possible. Orion is a signpost, rather than a tiny target to concentrate on.

Nor are the meteors actually arriving from those distant stars. Their paths appear to lead back towards one point because of perspective, rather like railway tracks appearing to meet in the distance.

A dark back garden or open paddock, with permission, may be all you need. Choose somewhere with a broad northern and eastern view, away from streetlights and security lights. A comfortable spot at home could be better than an expedition beneath trees or behind a ridge. You are looking up into the sky, so a a sea view is an optional bonus.

Bring a deck chair, blanket, warm clothes and something hot to drink. Leave the telescope and binoculars indoors: your unaided eyes give you the wide view this job requires. Allow at least 20–30 minutes for your eyes to adjust, and resist checking your phone. A bright screen is an excellent way to undo your preparations.

Allow an hour if you can, including settling-in time. Typical Orionid activity is often quoted at around 10–20 meteors an hour under favourable conditions, but there is no guarantee that we’ll be able to see that many from Karamea. Our relatively low radiant, moonlight, twilight and any cloud will reduce the tally. Expect quiet stretches; several good flashes would still make a worthwhile outing and sitting quietly under the stars is a good soul massage even if the meteors don’t shower.

Check the cloud forecast before sacrificing your sleep. Even in Sunny Karamea, celestial entertainment is occasionally impeded by a substantial cloud curtain. If it’s raining, it’s probably not a good night to see the meteor shower.

There is something rather gratifying about sitting quietly beneath the stars while remnants of a famous comet meet our atmosphere. No tickets, no subscription, no advertising break…just a bit of ancient dust, a very big universe, and us, looking up from our little corner of the heavens.

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RNZ: The 2026 Orionid Meteor Shower is Here – When and How to See it

Meteors of the Orionid meteor shower streak as they cross through the Milkyway in the mountainous area of Tannourine in northern Lebanon in 2021. (File photo)



RNZ Digital Reporters: Stargazers could be in for a treat this week as the annual Orionid meteor shower will be visibleacross Aotearoa skies.


The Orionid meteor shower occurs when Earth passes through a trail of debris left behind byHalley’s comet each October. This year it would be peak on the night of Wednesday, October 21 and the early morning ofThursday, October 22, according to Te Whatu Stardome.


When can you see the Orionids? The Orionids peak every October and in New Zealand it was active throughout the month. The peak however, would occur overnight between Wednesday and Thursday, Stardome said. The best time to watch from Auckland would be during pre-dawn hours, it said, especially afterthe moon sets.


In ideal conditions the Orionids could produce about 10-20 meteors per hour, Stardome said, butthis year’s bright moon would make some of the fainter meteors harder to see.


Where to get the best view? For the best chance of spotting the shower, Stardome said people should find a dark locationaway from city lights. “After the moon sets, look up towards the northeast and across the wider sky. Although themeteors appear to come from the direction of Orion, they can streak across almost any part of thesky.” The meteors should be visible to the naked eye, but you may need to be patient and wait up tohalf an hour to see them.


© RNZ, original at https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/science-and-technology/2041166/the-2026-orionid-meteor-shower-is-here-when-and-how-to-see-it

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Halley’s Comet: A Frequent Guest in Our Solar System

By: Christina Griffith (Originally Published in 2019)

Every 75 years or so, Halley’s Comet, also known as Comet Halley, passes through Earth’s neighborhood along its orbit. Since the dawn of man, many humans have been fortunate enough to see it twice in their lifetimes.

A photo of a bright white comet shooting through the sky with a tail
Halley’s Comet and its detailed tail. It shows the full range of features characteristic of a well-developed ion tail, including tail rays, condensations, a kink, a general helical structure (which shows only as a waviness on the print), and perhaps a disconnection event in which a part of the ion tail separates and the comet begins to develop a new tail. Photo by B.A.E. Inc./Alamy.

American astronomer Fred Whipple coined the phrase “dirty snowball” to describe the composition
of comets we are familiar with today. Comets are made of ice, dust, and small particles of rock. They are solar system bodies that usually orbit the sun in highly eccentric orbits that could take them millions of years to complete. Comets that take less than 200 years to make the journey, like Halley’s, are called periodic. When these cosmic travelers pass closer to the sun, the warmth heats the icy nucleus and it begins to release gasses. This produces the characteristic “coma,” or what we call the comet’s tail.

Civilizations around the world have recorded the regular appearance of Halley’s Comet. The first confirmed sighting is believed to have been made by Chinese astronomers in 239 BCE, documented in the Shih Chi and Wen Hsien Thung Khao chronicles. However, in 2010 researchers with Brigham Young University at Provo, Utah reviewed Greek histories describing a meteor strike in the Hellespont region between 468 and 466 BCE, which occurred at the same time as a comet sighting. Based on the timing and trajectory of the comet described, this might possibly be the earliest recorded sighting of Comet Halley.

A photo of a bright white comet with a tail, in the night sky
Halley’s Comet pictured in 1986 during its most recent pass by Earth. Photo by NASA Archive/Alamy.

The Babylonians documented astronomical observations in cuneiform texts called astronomical diaries. Only a handful survive, but archaeologists have discovered tablets and fragments that date from ca. 750 BCE to possibly as late as 75 CE. Though heavily damaged, what remains of these texts tells us the Babylonians had meticulously mapped the sky and made daily observations of the movements of celestial bodies. In both 164 and 87 BCE the Babylonians recorded the apparition of a comet. Researchers have been able to use the astronomical data about the path and timing of the sightings to confirm these were both Comet Halley.

Roman records first document the appearance in 12 BCE and again in 66 CE by Flavius Josephus. This apparition was considered a harbinger of the Roman destruction of Jerusalem.

It was the return of Halley’s Comet in 1066 CE that cemented its place in the annals of historic omens. Its appearance in the skies that winter was taken as a portent of bad news for Anglo-Saxon King Harold II. William the Conqueror would lead the Norman invaders to victory months later at the Battle of Hastings.

A baked clay tablet with cuneiform inscription
A translation of an astronomical diary written in cuneiform and dated 164 BCE reads “The comet which previously had appeared in the east in the path of Anu in the area of Pleiades and Taurus, to the west […] and passed along in the path of Ea.” From the British Museum, object 41462.
An engraving showing a map of Jerusalem with a comet passing above
17th century engraving depicting Halley’s Comet passing over Jerusalem in 66 CE. The event was considered a harbinger of the Roman destruction of Jerusalem. Image by World History Archive/Alamy.
A painting of people in the woods praying and pointing at a passing comet in the sky
Halley’s comet seen in 1066 CE. Appearance of comets were traditionally linked to disasters. Image by Lebrecht Music & Arts/Alamy.

Identifying Halley’s Comet: Edmund Halley (1656–1742), a British astronomer, mathematician, and physicist, determined in the 17th century that the comet that passed overhead in 1531, 1607, and 1682 was the same body. He was an accomplished scientist who throughout his career made invaluable contributions to star charts, recorded Mercury’s transit across the sun, and calculated the size of the solar system based on Venus’s orbit. A protégé of Sir Isaac Newton, Halley made observations to prove Newton’s laws of motion and funded the publication of the Principia Mathematica. From an observatory on Saint Helena island in the southern Atlantic in September of 1682 he observed the same comet reported 75 and 76 years earlier, calculated its orbit, and predicted its return. The comet was named after him posthumously when it appeared, as he predicted, in 1758.

Incidentally, the name “Halley” is traditionally pronounced like valley. It is believed that the American pronunciation is due to an association with the 1950s band Bill Haley and his Comets. Halley’s Comet’s last pass was in 1986, which was unfortunately a poor opportunity to observe the comet for Earth-dwellers: not only were we on opposite sides of the sun, but the comet was relatively far away compared to earlier passages, and our modern visibility was diminished by pollution. Fortunately, for the first time in human history, we were able to go to it. The Soviet Union, the European Space Agency, and Japan launched probes to study and photograph the comet. The International Cometary Explorer, a satellite launched in 1978 in a heliocentric orbit to study solar winds and earth’s magnetosphere, was repurposed in 1982 to intercept comets. It flew through Halley’s tail, collecting vital data. Our next opportunity to see Comet Halley will be in 2061.Ä

A drawn map with isogonic lines
Drawn by Edmund Halley in 1700, this map (detail shown) was the first to include isogonic lines, showing navigators the angle between the Earth’s magnetic north and true north. Courtesy of Princeton University Library.

CHRISTINA GRIFFITH is Associate Editor of Expedition.

FOR FURTHER READING
Edwards, L. “First sighting of Halley’s Comet pushed back two centuries.” PhysOrg, September 13, 2010. https://phys.org/ news/2010-09-sighting-halleys-comet-centuries.html#jCp

Graham, D.W. and E. Hintz. “An Ancient Greek Sighting of Halley’s Comet?” Journal of Cosmology 9 (2010): 2130–2136. journalofcosmology.com/AncientAstronomy106.html

Stephenson, F.R., K.K.C. Yau, and H. Hunger. “Records of Halley’s Comet on Babylonian tablets.” Nature 314 (1985): 18.

Two album covers of the band Bill Haley and his Comets
Album covers from the band Bill Haley and his Comets, ca. 1950s. Produced by Essex Records, images by Bear Family Records.
A photo of a bright white comet with purple tail in the night sky
A composite photo of Halley’s Comet in 1986, taken through the GPO telescope. Photo by ESO/ Wikimedia Commons.

Griffith, Christina. “Halley’s Comet.” Expedition Magazine 61, no. 1 (May, 2019): -. Accessed October 16, 2026. https://www.penn.museum/sites/expedition/halleys-comet/

Posted in astronomy, Environment, Historical, Humor, Humour, Karamea, New Zealand, Paul Murray, Science, South Island, West Coast | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Deep Dive into Four AFL Bridesmaids:

Posted on October 9, 2026 by LivinginPeaceProject

Ross the Boss, Marcus Bontempelli, The Dockers & Saint Kilda FC

Off the Top of My Head

By Paul Murray

The Brisbane Lions did it again. Lifting in the dying moments of the 2026 Australian Football League (AFL) Grand Final to snatch the game from the rightful clutches of the West Australian Fremantle Football Club to claim their third consecutive premiership trophy.

The Freemantle “Dockers” had dominated the 2026 AFL season, finishing minor premeirs and only conceding four games for the year. Formed in 1994 as part of the AFL national expansion programme, the Dockers arrived at the Melborne Cricket Ground (MCG) full of confidence, hope and determination seeking their first AFL flag.

Fremantle coach, Justin Longmuir, a former Dockers player, had been recognised as the 2026 AFL Coach of the Year four days earlier and must have arrived at the game confident of victory. An estimated 25,000 Fremantle fans also made the 2,754 km journey to support their side in the clash with the Queensland team, with approximately 35,000 of their fans travelling 1,780 km to Melbourne support the Lions third premiership performance in as many years. They joined another 50,000 fans at the hallowed home of footy and the stage was set for a spectacular sporting battle.

Throughout the 2026 season, the Freo team were inspired to greater on-field performance by the concept of “Wharfie Time.” This motivational tactic traces back to a 2009 pre-match huddle where then-captain Matthew Pavlich famously rallied his team by declaring, “It’s wharfie time!” “Wharfie” is Australian slang for a dockworker, and Wharfie Time is a nod to Fremantle’s maritime heritage and was initially the nickname considered for the club.

Wharfie Time at Optus Stadium
(Photo by The-Pope, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=200798802)

During tight or crucial moments late in Fremantle home games, the club dims the Optus Stadium lights to purple, and a lone guitarist atop the stadium cranks out AC/DC’s “Hells Bells,” and a huge tidal wave appears on the stadium screen to pump up the crowd and inspire the players. It was permitted at the AFL GF for the first time to match the Brisbane Lions similar inspiration technique of playing a particular song when one of their players scores, most notably “Take me Home Country Roads” by John Denver as the goal song for Lions star Charlie Cameron.

Fremantle triggered Wharfie Time in the 2026 AFL Grand Final against the Brisbane Lions after forward Patrick Voss kicked a goal to put the Dockers up by 17 points with just 4:18 left on the clock.

When the “GONG” of “Hells Bells” sounded out over the MCG in the final minutes of the AFL Grand Final, 18 Manchurian Candidates were triggered into action. Their mission was psychologically programmed by Coach Chris Fagan in the week leading up to the game to flip a mental switch and turn his team to WIN mode as soon as “Wharfie Time” rang out over the 100,000+ fans, all screaming from the edge of their seats.

The Lions ROARED and the Dockers crumbled after having led for most of the second half and dominating all the necessary metrics throughout the game that usually indicate onfield success; possession, inside 50s, tackles, hitouts etc, etc they had quite simply played better right up to the final siren when the Brisbane Lions snatched the cup away from them by five points to claim their third consecutive premiership cup and deny the Freo team their first cup.

Core Match Statistics: Fremantle’s dominance around the ball was spearheaded by ruck Luke Jackson’s 47 hitouts and their relentless midfield, but The Lion’s superiority in front of goal won them the game.

MetricFremantle Dockers logoFremantle DockersBrisbane Lions logoBrisbane Lions
Total Disposals308358
Contested Possessions139130
Total Clearances4531
Centre Clearances179
Stoppage Clearances2822
Inside 50s6248
Contested Marks177
Expected Score97.285.9
Actual Score12.17 (89)14.12 (96)

Instead of inspiring the Freo playes to seal the win for the West Australians, Wharfie Time energised Brisbane, and the team mounted a stunning late-game comeback to greedily snatch their third consecutive Grand Final victory and deny Freo their first AFL cup. Wharfie Time backfired spectacularly and rather than inspire the Dockers to greater on-field heights, it was their death knell.

The Brisbane Lions celebrate the 2026 AFL Grand Final win over The Fremantle Dockers on Sept. 26, 2026. (AFL Photos)

Former Fitzroy/Brisbane Lions player, Ross Lyon, the current coach of St Kilda FC, coached Fremantle Dockers to their last GF appearance in 2013, only to be left standing in the church holding the roses. He’d also taken St Kilda to the alter of football greatness in 2010 against the Colingwood Magpies and nearly took home the gong, the drawn game saw a repeat of the nuptial service the following week…and the Pies marched the Saints out of the church, denying them the trophy they had been seeking since their last wedding in 1966.

Lyon again took up the coaching role at St Kilda in 2023 after and 8-year stint as Freo coach and 4 years as a media commentator to, hopefully complete his unfinished business of winning an AFL cup for The Saints.

Western Bulldogs leader Marcus “The Bont” Bontempelli (Club Vice Captain 2018, 2019 and Captain since 2020) had another superb season, many pundits considering him to be the best player in the AFL.

The Bont has almost won the Brownlow Medal, which is recognition as the game’s Fairest & Best Player for the season, based on the opinion of field umpires. It is the AFL’s highest individual honour and a coveted gong among elite footy stars. He came second in 2021 and 2023 and third this year. He holds the all-time VFL/AFL record for the most career Brownlow votes (247) without ever winning the medal.

The Bont’s Brownlow Podium Finishes:

YearResultVotesWinner
2021Runner-up33Ollie Wines (36 votes)
2023Runner-up29Lachie Neale (31 votes)
2026Third place34Nick Daicos (47 votes)

He came equal sixth with this year’s winner Nick Daicos in 2025 after missing a quarter of the season through injury. He also holds the all-time VFL/AFL record for the most career Brownlow votes (247) without ever winning the medal.

Western Bulldogs Skipper Marcus Bontempelli was outstanding as they beat North Melbourne in 2024.
(Rob Prezioso/AAP PHOTOS)

Ross Lyon: Unfinshed Business: Wedding Bells for The Saints

In the annals of Australian Rules Football, few narratives are as compelling as that of Ross Lyon and the St Kilda Football Club. Lyon, a seasoned tactician, had his first stint as St Kilda’s coach marked by heartbreak in the 2010 AFL Grand Final. The match ended in a draw against Collingwood, only to be followed by a painful defeat in the replay the subsequent week. Despite this setback, Lyon’s ambition to secure the elusive premiership for the Saints never wavered. He took up the St Kilda cpoaching challenge again in 2024 and is back at the helm, determined to finish what he started over a decade ago.

Lyon’s coaching journey has been defined by resilience and strategic acumen. After his departure from St Kilda in 2011, he went on to coach Fremantle with remarkable success, leading the Dockers to consecutive Grand Finals in 2013 and 2014. Although victory continued to elude him, Lyon’s reputation as one of the AFL’s premier coaches remained undiminished, but he is yet to stand at the altar and kiss the bride.

Lyon’s return to St Kilda in 2024 wasn’t just a homecoming; it was a reunion with unfinished business. The memories of 2010 lingered, driving Lyon’s determination to take St Kilda to grand final glory. With a squad brimming with talent and a hunger for redemption, Lyon wasted no time in instilling his trademark defensive structure and meticulous game plan.

The 2024 season marked a promising start for Lyon and the Saints. Under his guidance, they exhibited a newfound resilience and tactical versatility, securing crucial victories against formidable opponents. Lyon’s emphasis on teamwork and discipline reverberated throughout the club, fostering a culture of unwavering commitment to the cause.

Pundits were heralding season success for St Kilda and considered the team to be genuine contenders for the premiership, igniting hope and anticipation among their loyal supporters. Supporters hope that Lyon’s astute leadership and unwavering belief in his players will propel the team to new heights, culminating in premiership gong.

Lyon’s tenure at St Kilda promises to be defined by continued success and a relentless pursuit of excellence. With his indomitable spirit and tactical genius guiding the way, the Saints are poised to write the next chapter in their storied history, fueled by the enduring legacy of Ross Lyon and the unshakeable belief that anything is possible when you refuse to relent in the pursuit of victory.

St Kilda FC: The Curse & the Unfinished Business:

To understand Ross Lyon’s unfinished business, you first have to understand St Kilda’s. This is a football club that has spent generations giving its supporters lessons in patience that nobody signed up for.

Founded in 1873, St Kilda have won just one VFL/AFL premiership. One. In 1966. And even then, they managed it by a solitary point. Barry Breen’s famous behind delivered victory over Collingwood and secured him a permanent place in Saints folklore. Other clubs celebrate dynasties. St Kilda celebrate a bloke missing the goals. Under the circumstances, quite rightly.

The warning signs appeared early. As a foundation member of the VFL in 1897, the Saints lost their first 48 matches. Supporting St Kilda was evidently going to require a sturdy constitution.

There have been opportunities since. Grand Final defeats in 1971 and 1997, followed by the particularly cruel disappointments of 2009 and 2010. Under Lyon in 2009, the Saints won their first 19 games, only to lose the match that mattered most to Geelong. A year later came the draw against Collingwood, followed by defeat in the replay. Football’s perpetual bridesmaids had found another way to get to the altar without bringing home the silverware.

That bouncing ball in the dying minutes of the drawn Grand Final remains almost unbearable viewing. Stephen Milne waiting near the goals, a premiership seemingly within reach, then the Sherrin taking a turn that no St Kilda supporter would have chosen. A behind. A draw. Another week of hope, then another heartbreak.

Are they jinxed? If you were assembling evidence, you may come to that assuimption. But a curse is a convenient explanation. It saves everyone having to examine the less romantic business of recruiting, development, injuries, decision-making and taking your chances when they arrive. Bad luck can decide a close match. It cannot be the club’s permanent business plan.

Nor does “hapless” quite do justice to St Kilda. Their history contains magnificent footballers and teams capable of beating anyone. The frustration is that so much ability, effort and loyalty has produced so little premiership reward. Being a Saints supporter is a seemingly fruitless persuit…knowing that your team can be brilliant, but still finding yourself watching someone else lift the cup.

The club is now putting serious money behind its determination to change that. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera’s decision to stay was a substantial statement. AFL.com.au reported his two-year extension as the first AFL contract worth $2 million a season. That is a considerable investment in a young footballer, but also in the belief that St Kilda can build something worth staying for.

The recruitment of Tom De Koning, Sam Flanders, Jack Silvagni and Liam Ryan adds substance to that ambition. The Saints are committing resources to strengthening the side, rather than simply asking their supporters to be patient for another few years.

Of course, an expensive team is not automatically a premiership team. The salary cap makes every large contract a choice about what remains available for everyone else. Wanganeen-Milera can provide brilliance, but he cannot be expected to carry the hopes of an entire club every Saturday. The investment succeeds only if the players around him improve, complement his strengths and make St Kilda harder to beat across the ground.

This is where Lyon earns his keep. His contract extension through to the end of 2027 gives him the backing to continue the project. That support also brings an obligation to turn promise into sustained performance. Sentiment about unfinished business will only carry him so far.

Lyon knows how to build a disciplined side. His challenge is to combine that discipline with enough attacking confidence to win against the best when the pressure is greatest. The Saints need to defend fiercely, then use the ball with purpose. Players with vision and flair need the freedom to create, supported by teammates who understand when to run, when to cover and when to take the game on.

They also need depth. A premiership campaign cannot depend on every important player remaining fit and finding form at precisely the right moment. Development, sound recruiting and clear roles throughout the list matter just as much as the headline signing.

The team needs to become comfortable with expectation and they need to believe they can win. There is a danger in making the drought so central to the club’s identity that every opportunity feels like an appointment with disaster. The current players did not lose those old Grand Finals. Their job is to win the games in front of them.

Ross Lyon and St Kilda have good reason to want this desperately. They have been close enough to know what slipped away, and the club is backing another attempt. But desire has to become action: better decisions, cleaner skills, greater consistency and the courage to seize a match when it is there to be won.

Imagine the release if they finally do it. The supporters who have waited decades. The families who have passed down their colours along with the warnings. The celebrations at Moorabbin. Even the most committed rival might allow them a moment before returning to normal service.

The Saints only premiership vicotry was in the year of my birth, 60 years ago…Barry Breen has carried the premiership story for long enough. It is time the St Kilda Football Club gave him some company.

St Kilda’s Barry Breen kicks a point to win the 1966 AFL(VFL) Grand Final: (https://www.saints.com.au/news/552330/barry-breen)
St Kilda’s 2026 team photo day at RSEA Park. Picture: AFL Photos
L-R: Dan Butler, Callum Wilkie, Ross Lyon, Jack Sinclair and Mason Wood:

Posted in AFL, Australia, Humour, Photography, Sport | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Two Recent ArtofNature Montage Sets

Posted on October 2, 2026 by LivinginPeaceProject

ArtofNature Photography by Paul Murray

https://www.instagram.com/pauljohnmurray

I’m interested in the concept of “Photography as Art.” Based In Sunny Karamea at the top of the West Coast of the South Island of New Zealand, I create montages from my abstract photographs by mirroring, flipping and inverting the images to showcase the beauty of nature.

I use the original abstract nature photo to create the montages by flipping the original upside down, inside out, back to front and right side up and put them together to create a new artwork.

Thanks for your interest in my ArtofNature Montages. 🤠👍

These images were captured on the Karamea Estary Walkway on October 1, 2026.

Original 1
Original 2

Posted in Art, Artist, Nature, New Zealand, Paul Murray, Photography, Uncategorized, West Coast | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Literary Tribute to “President” DumbOld J Trump

Posted on August 28, 2026 by LivinginPeaceProject

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Posted in Bureaucracy, Donald Trump, Economics, Hilarious, Hilarous, Historical, Humor, Humour, Parody, Paul Murray, POTUS, Power, President Trump, Racism, RedNeck, Satire, Social Commentary, Uncategorized, United States, War, Weird | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Literary Tribute to “President” DumbOld J Trump

Labour’s CGTax: Savvy Politics or Political Suicide?

Posted on August 16, 2026 by LivinginPeaceProject

Off the Top of My Head

By Paul Murray

There is an old political adage: Never stand between hard-working Kiwis and the future they have spent decades trying to build. Labour may be about to test that sentiment.

The NZ Labour Party’s new capital gains tax (CGT) proposal sounds neat in a press release. From 1 July 2027, gains on residential investment and commercial property would be taxed at 28% when the property is sold. The family home, farms, KiwiSaver, shares, businesses, inheritances and personal assets would all be exempt. Labour claims the proposed CGT won’t effect 90% of New Zealanders and promises to pour every dollar into health, including three free GP visits a year.

Who could object to fairness and free doctors? Quite a few people, I suspect—especially once they realise what Labour has chosen to call “fair.”

Labour calls it targeted. Small property investors may have another word for where the target has been painted.

This is not a comprehensive capital gains tax. It is a property tax wearing a capital-gains nametag. It does not tax the gain on a large share portfolio. It does not tax the gain on a private business. It does not tax KiwiSaver. It selects rental and commercial property, and only those assets, for special punishment.

That is politically dangerous in a country where property has long been the ordinary person’s unofficial pension scheme.

For years, New Zealanders have been told not to expect the state to provide a luxurious retirement. Save. Invest. Take responsibility. Build something for yourself. Many middle-income couples did exactly that. They worked, paid PAYE, went without, borrowed against the family home, bought a modest rental and dealt with interest rates, insurance, rates, repairs, compliance costs and the occasional tenant who treated a wall as a punching bag. They did not set up a Cayman Islands structure. They bought a weatherboard house in Hamilton.

The Kiwi retirement plan: work hard, pay down the mortgage, build a nest egg—and hope the magpie in the red tie does not spot it.

Now Labour wants to tell them that the asset class they understood, trusted and could actually borrow against is socially suspect—and that 28% of its future nominal gain belongs to the government when they sell.

Labour says nine out of ten New Zealanders will not pay the tax on property they own. That claim matters, and critics should be honest about it: the family home is exempt. This is not a tax on every homeowner.

But elections are not decided only by the number of people who receive an invoice. They are decided by what a policy says about aspiration. A voter may own one home today and still hope to buy a rental tomorrow. Adult children may expect their parents’ investment property to fund aged care rather than leave the family begging the state for help. Small landlords may not think of themselves as speculators at all. They think of themselves as people trying not to become a burden.

Those people vote and they are entitled to ask an obvious question: If Labour’s real objective is to move money into “productive investment,” why are gains on shares and businesses exempt?

The policy may actually make tax planning more productive than investment. Owners will delay selling to avoid crystallising the tax. Capital will become locked into properties that no longer suit the owner or market. People will rearrange ownership and valuations around the family-home exemption. Accountants and lawyers will do nicely. Whether an extra dollar reaches a promising New Zealand company is far less certain.

Then there is the phrase “property speculation.” It is politically useful because it makes every landlord sound like someone flipping six Auckland villas before breakfast. But a long-term rental held for twenty years is not a roulette chip. It is capital tied up, risk accepted, housing supplied and a retirement plan patiently built.

Yes, New Zealand is overinvested in housing—and the scale matters. University of Auckland analysis drawing on OECD data puts housing at roughly 33.8% of New Zealand’s total national investment, compared with an OECD average of 21.4%. In other words, about one investment dollar in three goes into housing here, against roughly one in five across the OECD.

The same preference appears on household balance sheets. Stats NZ’s 2024 household wealth data show that owner-occupied dwellings and other real estate account for approximately 48% of total household assets, up from 43 per cent in 2021. Direct shares and managed funds occupy a much smaller share for most households. The national instinct is not subtle: when Kiwis have money, equity and borrowing capacity, we tend to put them into something with a roof.

Among the wealthy, the preference is not merely for property but for property close to home. A 2025 Knight Frank survey reported by Property Council New Zealand found that 93% of Kiwi family-office real-estate investment remained in New Zealand, compared with 90% in Australia and 86% in the United States. That figure concerns surveyed family offices rather than all households, so it should not be treated as a national average. But it reinforces the larger picture: New Zealand capital is unusually attached to New Zealand land and buildings.

That concentration is a genuine economic problem. It leaves households exposed to one asset class, directs savings away from enterprises that might raise productivity, and encourages us to become wealthy by selling increasingly expensive houses to one another.

But it is also the result of policy. Successive governments created a country with shallow capital markets, expensive housing, inconsistent rules and an understandable public distrust of political promises about retirement. Having trained households to seek security in property, Wellington now proposes to fine them for learning the lesson.

Labour answers that nearly every comparable country taxes capital gains. True. Australia has done so since 1985. But “other countries do it” is not an argument; it is the beginning of a comparison.

Countries are not interchangeable tax laboratories. They have different pension systems, savings habits, capital markets, rates of home ownership, housing shortages and attitudes to risk. New Zealand households are unusually dependent on property as both shelter and retirement capital. A policy copied from overseas can have a very different effect here because it lands on a very different household balance sheet.

Before imposing a CGT, a government should therefore answer some basic questions in public. What precise economic problem is the tax intended to solve? How much money will it raise after administration, behavioural change and avoidance? How much investment is realistically expected to move from property into New Zealand businesses rather than overseas shares? What will happen to rents, new construction, house prices and retirement incomes? What other taxes could be reduced? What measurable benefit should New Zealanders expect in five, 10 and 20 years?

Most importantly: what is the net gain for the country after the costs are counted?

Labour has supplied the slogan—tax property, fund doctors—but not yet the national balance sheet. Ring-fencing the revenue for health tells us where the money will be spent. It does not demonstrate that this particular tax is the best way to raise it, or that the wider economic benefits will exceed the distortions and compliance costs.

The Case Labour Needs to Make

There are respectable arguments for taxing capital gains, and opponents should acknowledge them.

A well-designed CGT can improve horizontal fairness: two people enjoying the same increase in economic resources should not face completely different tax outcomes merely because one earned wages and the other held an appreciating asset. It can reduce the tax advantage of chasing capital gain rather than taxable income. It can broaden the revenue base as the population ages. It may reduce speculative demand at the margin, make first-home buyers more competitive and encourage some savings to flow towards companies, infrastructure and innovation.

If those changes actually occurred, New Zealand could gain deeper capital markets, better-funded businesses and less household wealth concentrated in a single, leveraged asset class. Investors themselves could gain more diversified portfolios and less exposure to one housing market, one interest-rate cycle and one set of tenancy rules.

Those are potential benefits—not guaranteed outcomes. A realisation-based CGT also encourages owners to hold assets merely to defer tax. A property-only CGT creates new boundaries and new opportunities for avoidance. Taxing nominal gains can capture inflation rather than genuine increases in purchasing power. Reduced investor demand might improve affordability for buyers, but a poorly managed transition could also reduce rental supply or discourage development.

That is precisely why the government bears the burden of explanation. It must publish its modelling, assumptions, distributional effects, implementation costs and measures of success. “Most countries have one” and “three free doctor visits” are campaign lines. They are not a complete economic case.

Not Retrospective—Far Too Abrupt

To be fair, Labour’s proposal is not retrospective in the strict tax sense. Property would be valued at 1 July 2027 and only gains accruing after that date would be taxed when realised. Historic gains would be excluded.

But two years’ warning is still abrupt when the investments concerned were commonly made over twenty- or thirty-year horizons. A person who arranged a retirement plan under one set of rules cannot necessarily unwind mortgages, tenancies, ownership structures and market timing by an arbitrary valuation date without cost.

If Parliament decides that the national interest requires households to move capital away from property, it should treat those households as partners in a transition—not as a convenient tax base. Existing investors should receive a long runway, potentially ten years, to sell, restructure or redirect savings. The tax could be phased in gradually, with clearly announced rates and durable cross-party legislation. Existing properties might be grandfathered for a defined period, while new purchases made with full knowledge of the rules could enter the regime sooner.

A decade is not a gift to speculators. It is recognition that government helped create the incentives people responded to, and that retirement planning cannot be turned like a speedboat.

Such a transition would have costs. It would delay revenue and could produce strategic buying or selling around commencement dates. Those effects would need careful design. But stability, consent and predictability are economic assets too. A rushed reform that is reversed after one election may be worse than no reform at all.

Where Could Investors Go?

If this policy became law, it would create both pressure and opportunity for investors. The sensible response would not be a frantic sale of every rental. It would be a sober reassessment of purpose, time horizon, cash flow, debt and diversification, supported by independent financial and tax advice.

Under Labour’s announced design, gains on shares, businesses, KiwiSaver and the family home would remain outside this CGT. That could make diversified New Zealand and international share funds, listed companies, managed PIE funds, bonds and increased KiwiSaver contributions relatively more attractive than another leveraged rental. Investors willing to accept business risk could provide equity to productive New Zealand enterprises—the capital shift Labour says it wants.

There may also still be viable property strategies. Because the tax is triggered on sale, a well-bought rental producing reliable net income could remain worthwhile for a long-term owner; income and yield would matter more, and hoped-for capital gain less. Lower investor demand might eventually improve purchase prices or gross yields for buyers who properly account for tax. Property owners could focus on operational performance, appropriate improvements and disciplined debt rather than assuming perpetual price inflation.

Investors could also obtain indirect property exposure through listed or managed vehicles, although the precise treatment would depend on the final legislation and on tax paid inside the entity. Nobody should build a strategy around an exemption until the law, anti-avoidance rules and fund-level treatment are known.

The larger opportunity is diversification. Many Kiwi households have their home, rental, mortgage, income and retirement hopes all tied to the same local property cycle. Redirecting part of that concentration into a spread of industries, countries and asset types could make household finances more resilient—even if Labour’s tax is a poor way to force the lesson.The larger opportunity is diversification. Many Kiwi households have their home, rental, mortgage, income and retirement hopes all tied to the same local property cycle. Redirecting part of that concentration into a spread of industries, countries and asset types could make household finances more resilient—even if Labour’s tax is a poor way to force the lesson.

A broader investment culture could benefit New Zealand. The question is whether Wellington should build the road—or simply put a tollbooth on the old one.

Will Kiwis Simply Build McMansions?

There is another unintended consequence Labour has barely discussed. If gains on investment property are taxed but gains on the family home—including lifestyle blocks—remain exempt, rational people will notice the difference.

Some households may decide that the safest place for their next dollar is not a rental or a New Zealand company but the kitchen, second lounge, swimming pool, landscaping or extra hectare attached to the tax-free family home. Others may trade up to a larger and more expensive residence because its gain remains sheltered. At the margin, the policy could encourage renovation, overcapitalisation and “mansionisation”: more capital poured into fewer, grander homes rather than more modest homes or productive businesses.

If the rental is taxable but the family home is not, do not be surprised when the productive economy turns out to have a swimming pool and a six-car garage.

Will Auckland instantly become Los Angeles with McMansions on every ridge? Of course not. Planning rules, construction costs, mortgage rates, insurance and household incomes will remain far more powerful drivers. Most families do not buy an extra wing merely because of tax treatment. And home improvements create real work for builders and tradespeople while sometimes improving energy efficiency and housing quality.

But incentives do not have to transform everyone’s behaviour to distort investment. The people most able to respond will be higher-income owners with spare equity—the very people capable of choosing between another rental, a share portfolio, a business investment and a major home upgrade. If one option offers private enjoyment and an untaxed gain, while another carries a 28% tax on sale, the government should expect some money to move towards the exempt option.

Lifestyle blocks deserve particular scrutiny. Labour expressly says they are covered by the family-home exemption, while farms are also exempt. Unless the final legislation tightly defines the exempt home, surrounding land and genuine farming activity, the boundary could invite people to package investment as lifestyle, seek larger residential holdings or retain land around a home that might otherwise be subdivided or used productively.

That does not mean a CGT will automatically “tie up farmland.” Zoning, subdivision rules, infrastructure and rural economics will still determine most land use. A tax exemption cannot magically turn productive farmland into residential land. But it can add another reason to hold wealth in a large home and its surrounding acreage—and another argument for lawyers to have with Inland Revenue.

The 2019 Tax Working Group saw this problem coming. Its proposed main-home exclusion limited exempt surrounding land to the lesser of 4,500 square metres or the area reasonably required for enjoying the home, with gains on additional land apportioned. Labour’s current policy page simply promises exemptions for family homes, lifestyle blocks and farms. Before voters accept that promise, they deserve the definitions.

A credible policy would cap or apportion the main-home exemption above a generous value or land-area threshold, protect ordinary family homes, and prevent artificial changes of use. It would also disclose whether renovations and improvements reset the cost base, how mixed residential and farming land would be treated, and how trusts and multiple residences would be policed.

Otherwise, Labour may discover that taxing investment property does not send capital marching obediently towards productive enterprise. Some of it may simply move through the front gate and reappear as a six-car garage.

Labour’s best argument is tax fairness. Wage earners pay tax as they earn. Much capital appreciation escapes tax altogether. Inland Revenue’s study of 311 of the country’s wealthiest families found a median effective tax rate of 8.9% on economic income; on a broadly comparable measure including GST and netting off government payments, the figure was 9.4%, against 20.2% for a middle-wealth New Zealander. That is the real scandal.

But Labour’s answer largely misses the people in that study. The very rich do not keep all their wealth in a couple of suburban rentals. Their gains commonly sit in businesses, financial portfolios, trusts and complex ownership structures. Labour proposes to exempt shares and business assets while taxing the familiar retirement vehicle of the shopkeeper, tradie, nurse, teacher and small-business couple.

If the problem is that the truly wealthy pay too little, tax the truly wealthy.

New Zealand should debate a high-wealth minimum tax: a rule ensuring that people above a genuinely high net-worth threshold—say $20 million or $50 million—pay a minimum effective rate on their total economic income, including capital gains. Design it with deferral provisions for genuinely illiquid assets, strong trust look-through rules and safeguards against forced sales. Make the threshold high enough that a family home and one or two rentals do not turn an ordinary household into a Treasury target.

There are difficult details. Valuation, liquidity and avoidance do not disappear because a policy has a satisfying slogan. But at least such a tax would aim at the stated problem: multimillionaires whose effective tax rate can sit below that of the people who clean their offices.

New Zealand’s tax system has always believed in lifting people up. It has simply been less specific about which end of the lever they should stand on.

Better still, pair tax reform with genuine incentives for productive investment. Encourage long-term investment in New Zealand companies. Make diversified funds inexpensive and accessible. Reduce the complexity that makes rental property feel safer than backing a business. Improve financial literacy. Build a stable retirement framework that lasts longer than one electoral cycle. Do not simply make one widely held asset less attractive and hope the money obediently marches into a start-up—or leaves New Zealand altogether.

And let us retire the moral caricatures on both sides. People who need public healthcare are not lazy. Many are working, caring, sick, disabled or simply trapped by costs no individual can control. Three free GP visits could be valuable policy. But a worthwhile service does not automatically justify any tax chosen to fund it.

Likewise, owning an investment property does not make someone greedy. For many New Zealanders it represents years of restraint and a serious attempt to provide for themselves.

That is where Labour risks political suicide. It is offering voters a morality play in which property investors are the villains and government spending is the redemption. But many of the supposed villains look remarkably like the middle class: cautious, mortgaged, ageing and worried about the future.

A fair tax system does not ask everyone to put in the same amount. It asks everyone to put in the same amount of effort.

Tax fairness should mean that people with the greatest economic resources carry a fair share of the load. It should not mean choosing the investment most familiar to ordinary New Zealanders because it is visible, immovable and easy to hit.

Labour may call its policy targeted, the problem is whom it has chosen to target.

Sources and fact-check notes

Author’s note: The proposed ten-year transition and high-wealth minimum tax are arguments for consideration, not descriptions of current Labour policy. The investment discussion is general commentary, not personalised financial or tax advice.

Posted in Banking, Bureaucracy, Capital Gains Tax, Capitsl Gains Tax, Economics, Money, New Zealand, Paul Murray, Politics, Property, Real Estate, Social Commentary, Social Equity, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

MAGA: Make America Giggle Again

Posted on June 29, 2026 by LivinginPeaceProject

This gallery contains 182 photos.

Satire & Politics: Featuring U.S. President DumbOld J. Trump

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KaraWearable 2026: WHOOPS…They Did it AGAIN!

Posted on June 3, 2026 by LivinginPeaceProject

Off the Top of My Head

By Paul Murray

“Teamwork makes the dream work,” as our kids often say, and the KaraWearable Team, together with a diversely talented team of local volunteers, created a dream on Saturday May 30, 2026, at the Karamea Pulse Energy Centre with a spectacular show of local imagination, creativity and design skills that was the 4th consecutive annual KaraWearable Art Show.

This year’s theme was “Into the Deep” and most of the creations displayed on the catwalk drew inspiration from the creatures, colours and beauty of our oceans, rivers and lakes. A total of 35 entrants, this year 20% of which were from outside our district, worked much of the year to craft clever outfits that could be worn by models on the gala night and the audience at the sold-out event were regaled by the inventiveness and originality of the designs and the professionalism of the models.

Students from Karamea Area School and children from designed costumes and learned how to present their creations on the big stage, and they delighted the crowd and warmed up the catwalk for the adult section in the second half of the show. School teachers, their students, farmers, nurses, mothers, retirees, and people from all walks of life, people who are normally not devoted to artistic pursuits, relished the opportunity provided by the event to flex their creative brain muscles and fertile imaginations, draw on less common contemporary skills like sewing, crochet, paper mâché and sculpting. The designers used found objects, refuse, repurposed materials and the abundance of natural fibres, plants, shells, wood and stones readily available in our special area to express feelings, emotions, life experiences, history, humour, social issues and thoughts that prevail in our daily lives to showcase them on an outfit with vibrant colours, artistic flair, grace and style.

“Crafty Coral” by the Kowhai Class at Karamea Area School won 1st Prize in the Youth Category. The outfit was created by the students under the inspiring tutelage of class teacher Miss Hannah Lawson. The outfit was modelled by student Wren Walker. The class were learning about coral reefs, and they used all sorts of materials, including painted pasta, to create their winning entry.

“Crafty Coral,” designed by Miss Hannah and Karamea Area School’s Kowhai Class and modelled by Wren Walker. (Photo by Dan Murton)

Second place in the Youth Category went to Lulu Brownie and Chris Lowe with “Magic Mermaid,” and their on-stage performance really stole the show. Nana Chris, comically dressed in an inflatable shark suit, bopped her way around the catwalk towing magical mermaid Lulu around on a beautifully decorated cart.

“Magic Mermaid,” designed by Linda and Lulu Brownie and modelled by Lulu and Chris Lowe. (Photo by Dan Murton)
“Magic Mermaid,” designed by Linda and Lulu Brownie and modelled by Lulu and Chris Lowe. (Photo by Jade McLeod)

The adult portion of the show began with the display of an award-winning outfit by recent Karamea arrival, Renate Jamieson, titled “Bang, Bang,” which won First Prize at the Salt Festival in Port Lincoln, South Australia, in 2025. The piece was professionally modelled by senior Karamea Area School student Quillyn O’Dwyer, and it spoke to the important social issue of domestic violence and abuse. It was made of thousands of pieces of folded paper and took Ms Jamieson 650 hours to assemble. While the outfit was not eligible for an award on the night, it showed how creativity can be utilised as social commentary and to raise awareness and provoke thought about a challenging issue that affects so many and urgently needs public understanding and attention.

“Bang, Bang” designed by Renate Jamieson and modelled by Quillyn O’Dwyer (Photo by Dan Murton)

The winning entry in the adult category was a giant weta with an exoskeleton crafted from copper by German artisan Chris Seufert, the very creative Sacha Healy and their trusty assistant Ekkehard Unger and expertly modelled by Sacha Healy.

“Wētāpunga: The God of Ugly Things” by Chris Seufert, Sacha Healy and Ekkehard Unger and modelled by Sacha Healy (Photo by Dan Murton)

“Wētāpunga: The God of Ugly Things” by Chris Seufert, Sacha Healy and Ekkehard Unger and modelled by Sacha Healy (Photo by Jade McLeod)
“Wētāpunga: The God of Ugly Things” by Chris Seufert, Sacha Healy and Ekkehard Unger and modelled by Sacha Healy (Photo by Dan Murton)

For many weeks, as I walked our dog “Kawa” around the Karamea Estuary Walkway, I would stroll past Chris’ house and hear industrious metallic banging from his shed, along with lots of laughter, accompanied by Frank Zappa music, and wonder to myself, “What are they building in there?” I knew better than to ask and managed to suppress my curiosity, and was completely overwhelmed on show night by the incredible creation they presented. With the likeness of a real weta, completed with long, thin harakeke flax flower stems for its legs and antennae, their entry was a stand-out winner among tough competition on the night.

The weta was accompanied by a poem that described the creation and the motivation behind it well:

Wētāpunga: The God of Ugly Things

Into the deep, into the murk,
Into the darkness where ugly things lurk-
Light up your courage,
Breathe life from it’s sparks,
Transmogrify fear into luminous art!

Wētāpunga was so life-like, it scared the children sitting at the front of the stage. The creation will be on display in window of the old Global Gypsy Gallery, opposite the Karamea 4-Square supermarket. This entry raised the already high bar set by the KaraWearable event, so go and check it out and be inspired to create your own piece for the next show.


Second place in the Adult Category went to Mary Bell and her son Sam, who designed, crafted, and modelled a creation titled “Mutating Microbes.” The mother and son team are from over the hills in Granity, one of the entries from outside of the Karamea region. Mary has been an enthusiastic supporter of the Karawearable show over the years and has won numerous awards. She is a great wearable artist…Congratulations, Mary and Sam, thanks for your dedicated and ongoing support of the event.

“Mutating Microbes” explores the resilience of life beyond humanity. Inspired by prehistoric organisms and the hidden microscopic world, the work imagines microbes evolving and adapting into new forms in Earth’s future. Through mutation and metamorphosis, the creations reflect on nature’s capacity to endure in the deepest reaches of time, darkness, and transformation. So the work is less about the depth of the ocean, but about the deep, unseen processes of evolution and the enduring power of life to adapt long after human influence has faded.

“Mutating Microbes” designed and modelled by Mary Bell and son Sam from Granity. (Photo by Dan Murton)

A hat titled “Fishervessence,” designed and modelled by Patricia August, also from Granity, took out the “Best Accessory” award. Her creation was made from papier-mâché and “bits and pieces” and cleverly lit with LED lights.

“Fishervessence,” designed and modelled by Patricia August, from Granity. (photo by Dan Murton)

The “People’s Choice Awards” are always a popular feature of the show. Audience members can vote for their favourite entry, and their votes are collected from the crowd by runners who take them backstage to be counted. This year’s people’s choice for the Youth Section went to designer Diva Murray with “Tetra,” which was beautifully modelled by her friend Eva McGrath.

As Diva’s father, I can hardly believe she managed to finish her creation, as two days before the show, the outfit was lying on her bedroom floor in a series of seemingly irreconcilable bits. With teenage confidence, she assured me that she knew what she was doing, and true to her word, she nailed it (or more accurately sewed it).

“Tetra”designed by Diva Murray and modelled by Eva McGrath (Photo by Dan Murton)

After the Youth portion of the show was completed, it was suppertime and the hungry crowd were treated to a sumptuous spread of gourmet treats by Vinnie Dunford, the Master Chef at the world famous (in Karamea) “Vinnies Cafe.”

Opulent repast from Vinnies Cafe in Karamea prepared by local culinary aficionado Vinnie Dunford. (Photo by Dan Murton)

The Adult Section winner of the “People’s Choice Award” was “Curiosities of the Coral Reef,” which was designed and modelled by the very clever Tina Wylie. Her incredibly intricate design also featured a good dose of humour. To the Dean Martin song  “That’s Amore,” a comical moray eel would emerge from the outfit, smile and acknowledge the crowd. It was a very memorable performance, so much so that many who saw it, including myself, have had that song in our heads for days after the show!

“Curiosities of the Coral Reef” designed and modelled by Tina Wylie (Photo by Dan Murton)

After the adults had strutted their stuff and while the judges were deliberating, local gymnast Lydia Bee took to the stage and wowed the audience with an incredibly flexible and seemingly death-defying aerial performance high under a steel pyramid, swinging from an aerial hammock. Thank you for an amazing acrobatic performance Lydia.

Acrobat Lydia Bee entertains the audience at the 2026 Karawearable Show. (Photo by Dan Murton)

To all the team, everyone involved to make this dream work, thank you, Thank you to the organizing committee who worked tirelessly and doggedly all year to bring this awesome event together, thanks to the creative people who designed, crafted and modeled the outfits, the school staff, teachers, hall management team, bar staff, cleaners, backstage helpers, judges, make-up artists, photographers, sponsors, promoters, sound engineers, lighting technicians, caterers, graphic designers, printers, ticket sellers, Clean Streams Karamea for the plants to decorate the hall, scaffolders, the MC, the acrobat, all the volunteers who helped set up and take down the stage, chairs, carpets etc for the show…It is always amazing to see how the Karamea community rallies around to contribute and assist. Thank you to everyone who volunteered their time and skills, and finally, thank you to the audience who came and clapped and cheered and supported the carnival of creativity and made it all well worth the effort.

A special mention needs to be made to the organising team of Sanae Murray, Cathy Sampson, Liz Kerslake, Bridie Young and Ange Cronin thank you team for a magnificent effort. Judges Anita Halsall, Alison Hale and Ruth Vaega, all artists themselves, took on the tough job of deliberation and eventually deciding the winning entries in each category in a very tight competition. Thanks for your important contribution ladies. Master of Ceremonies, the vivacious Jessie Creedmore, got the show on the road and kept it rolling along all night. Well played, Jessie. To all the creators, designers, artisans and models who made the show a show…Brilliant work. Thank you again for making the night magical. It was a dream come true.

In the era of social media, digital screens, computer games and artificial intelligence, it is more important than ever that we inspire our children and encourage them to use their imaginations and demonstrate that artistic expression is gratifying, a productive pursuit and essential for human prosperity and the enjoyment of life. Well done all concerned, all of Karamea is bigger and better because of your collective efforts and dedication….Can we do it again in 2027? Of course we can!

Category Winners

Youth 1st Place – Prize sponsor: S M Lowe Contracting
Title: Crafty Coral
Designer: Kowhai Class
Model: Wren Walker

Youth 2nd Place – Prize sponsor: S M Lowe Contracting
Title: Magic Mermaid
Designer: Lulu & Linda Brownie
Models: Lulu Brownie & Chris Lowe

Youth People’s Choice – Prize sponsors: Mitre 10 Westport & Property Brokers 
Title: Tetra
Designer: Diva Murray
Model: Eva McGrath

Best Accessory – Prize sponsor: Little Wanganui Pub
Title: Fishervessence
Designer: Patricia August
Model: Patricia August

Adult 1st Place – Prize sponsor: Property Brokers Karamea
Title: Wētāpunga – The God of Ugly Things
Designers: Chris Seufert, Sacha Healey and Ekkehard Unger
Model: Sacha Healey

Adult 2nd Place – Prize sponsor: Karamea Village Hotel
Title: Mutating Microbes
Designer: Mary Bell
Models: Mary & Sam

Adult People’s Choice – Prize sponsors: Mitre 10 Westport & Property Brokers
Title: Curiosities of the Coral Reef
Designer: Tina Wylie
Model: Tina Wylie

KaraWearable Art Show Photos by Dan Murton

KaraWearbale Art Show Photos by Jade McLeod

Category Winners

Youth 1st Place – Prize sponsor: S M Lowe Contracting
Title:Crafty Coral
Designer: Kowhai Class
Model: Wren Walker

Youth 2nd Place – Prize sponsor: S M Lowe Contracting
Title: Magic Mermaid
Designer: Lulu & Linda Brownie
Models: Lulu Brownie & Chris Lowe

Youth People’s Choice – Prize sponsors: Mitre 10 Westport & Property Brokers 
Title: Tetra
Designer: Diva Murray
Model: Eva McGrath

Best Accessory – Prize sponsor: Little Wanganui Pub
Title: Fishervessence
Designer: Patricia August
Model: Patricia August

Adult 1st Place – Prize sponsor: Property Brokers Karamea
Title: Wētāpunga – The God of Ugly Things
Designers: Chris Seufert, Sacha Healey and Ekkehard Unger
Model: Sacha Healey

Adult 2nd Place – Prize sponsor: Karamea Village Hotel
Title: Mutating Microbes
Designer: Mary Bell
Models: Mary & Sam

Adult People’s Choice – Prize sponsors: Mitre 10 Westport & Property Brokers
Title: Curiosities of the Coral Reef
Designer: Tina Wylie
Model: Tina Wylie

From The Westport News, June 3, 2026.

Posted in Art, Artist, Children, Community, Community-Led Development, Education, Entertainment, Environment, Fashion, Food, Funny, Humor, Humour, Karamea, Karamea Area School, LED Lighting, Music, New Zealand, Paul Murray, Photography, Social Commentary, Uncategorized, Wearable Art, West Coast | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Busy Day for DJT: Political Satire Mirrors Social Trends

Posted on May 10, 2026 by LivinginPeaceProject
Screenshot



After

Posted in Bureaucracy, DJT, Donald Trump, Hilarious, Hilarous, Humor, Humour, Parody, POTUS, President Trump, Racism, Satire, Social Commentary, Uncategorized, United States, War, Weird | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Democracy Crumbles While Nero Blows His Trumpet

Posted on May 5, 2026 by LivinginPeaceProject

Beware the Conductor, but Watch the Orchestra

Off the Top of My Head


By Paul Murray

Donald Trump has a rare talent that his critics underestimate and his supporters misunderstand. It is not policy. It’s not discipline. It’s certainly not restraint or intelligence….It is velocity and an uncanny ability to control the media narrative and command public attention.

The man operates at a speed that overwhelms comprehension. One day he is floating the idea of buying Greenland as if it were a slightly used jet ski on Trade Me or e-Bay. The next, he’s crowing about absorbing Canada into the United States as the 51st State, withouit bothering to discuss this with officials from the sovereign state of Canada. Then comes a Trump Tower beachfront redevelopment for Gaza, which sounds less like foreign policy and more like a brochure for a distressed luxury resort: “Sun, sea, and geopolitics—great potential, just needs a tidy-up.” And just when you think the well has run dry, out pumps something new. A White House ballroom. A national digital currency. His tariffs, which are somehow supposed to bring American manufacturing back, then, he launches a line of Trump Bibles—manufactured in China.

It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so sinster, because while everyone is reacting to Trumps ludicrous proclamations—laughing, fuming, sharing, arguing, sharing and reposting—the machinery of governance continues to shift in ways that are much more ominous and consequential.

This part of the show is off stage and well out of the spotlights. While Trump performs, others plot nefarious machinations. While he dominates the narrative and captures public attention, backstage, quiter, more methodical efforts reshape the long-term policy frameworks, staffing strategies, and institutional changes that they don’t want trending on social media. They just need to be implemented slowly enough that no single moment feels significant.

So Trump keeps his bike moving, pedalling ever faster to stay ahead of public scrutiny, legal process and Democratic opposition to Republican redrawing of the blueprints to ensure perpetual dominion.

That, really, is the image that best captures the current state of play: Trump on a stationary bike, pedalling furiously. Not moving forward in any meaningful sense, but generating just enough motion to stay upright. The pedals are labelled outrage, distraction, crisis, and counter-crisis. The flywheel is powered by attention. And the rule is simple—stop pedalling, and everything catches up, because there is always something coming up behind him.

Legal cases, for one thing. Civil, criminal, procedural—layered, complex, and, most importantly, slow. The justice system, by design, is not built for speed. It dawdles rather than sprints. This creates a peculiar advantage for anyone able to operate faster than it can respond. Politics can change in days. Court cases take years, and in that gap between action and consequence, a LOT can happen.

This timing mismatch is useful to the incumbent administration. By exploiting reality and keeping public attention, conversation stays on the smoke and mirrors Trump keeps spewing, ensuring that the slower checks and balances of common sense, prudent policy, and Constitutional guidelines struggle to keep pace.

But what happens when Trump can’t pedal any faster and the wheel falls off?

For all its effectiveness, the spectacle Trump creates has a shelf life. Promises, particularly the simple ones, tend to linger in the public mind. Promises need to be kept to garner continued support. No more wars. Lower costs. A better deal for working people. Make America Great Again…the hubris is beginning to wane, the strategy is faltering, and the audience is starting to tire. These are not abstract ideological commitments; they are everyday expectations, and such expectations keep quietly and persistently returning, like unpaid bills.

When such expectancy is not met, something shifts. Not dramatically or suddenly, but subtly. People begin to hear questions where there were once slogans. Conversations where there was once certainty. Not a collapse of support, but a dilution and a hesitation before blind acceptance.

Even within the broader media ecosystem, which has often been sympathetic, there are signs of Trump’s magnificent, malicious public persona crumbling. Debates about strategy, delivery, and whether the constant motion is producing results or merely sustaining itself.

Many of his champions are having second thoughts; Former political allies and Trump trumpeters, Majorie Taylor Green, Rex Tillerson, Thomas Massie and media trumpets, Megan Kelly, Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan et al., are all rethinking their MAGA hats. The list goes on, and MAGA voters are also starting to wish they hadn’t supported Trump at the ballot and polls support this assertion.

This is where the bike metaphor becomes less amusing, because the faster you pedal to maintain the lead over an increasingly maddening crowd and the lagging legal process, the harder it becomes to stay ahead. Each new statement must be louder than the last. Each new idea needs to be more attention-grabbing. Each new controversy must be more consuming. Greenland wasn’t enough? Try Canada. Canada not enough? Try Gaza. Gaza not enough? Try something else entirely. Invade Cuba? Invade Venezuela? Arrest former FBI Director Comey (again)? Ban transgender athletes in the Olympics? Demand rare-earth minerals from Ukraine? A gold statue of himself? Mt Rushmore? Trump passports? Demand a Nobel Peace Prize? Claim he has ended numerous wars? How about a Melania Movie? Trump Underpants?

Escalation is not a choice. It is a requirement and things are going to get weirder as the need to pedal faster looms ever closer.

Meanwhile, behind the curtain, the iniquitous changes quietly continue. Electoral rules debated and redrawn. Institutional norms stretched or reinterpreted. Media landscapes reshaped—not necessarily silenced, but nudged, pressured, aligned and purchased by Trump allies. Not in a single sweeping act, but in a series of incremental adjustments that, over time, begin to add up into substantial and possibly irreversible change that favours Republican sentiment.

This is how systems change in modern democracies. Not with a dramatic break, but with a gradual reconfiguration. A tweak here. A precedent there. A personnel change that seems minor until it isn’t. All of it occurring while the maddened crowd is watching and increasingly beginning to question the man on the bike pedalling furiously.

It would be comforting to believe that the spectacle is the story. That the outrageous statements, the grandiose ideas, the theatrical gestures are the entirety of what is happening, but they may, in fact, be the least important part.

Yes, the spectacle, by its nature, demands attention, but public heed is finite. Every moment spent reacting to the latest absurdity is a moment not spent examining the quieter, more structural shifts it is designed to obfuscate.

It is not whether Trump believes his own ideas about Greenland or Gaza or ballroom expansions or digital currencies, imported Bibles or…Trump Unicorns? The question is whether it matters and what is really going on behind the scenes.

If the effect is to keep the conversation perpetually occupied, constantly reactive, continuously one step behind—then the content of the distraction is almost irrelevant. What matters to the Trump administration is that it works, but maybe it is becoming less effective, maybe people are starting to peek backstage to see what is really happening as Trump’s proclamations become increasingly farcical, absurd and laughable. Perhaps public opinion, including MAGA supporters are catching up to the tiring one-trick president, and the real agenda is becoming increasingly evident.

Because democracies, for all their flaws, have a stubborn tendency to reassert themselves through the unglamorous mechanisms that built them in the first place. Voting. Courts. Institutions. Public scrutiny that arrives late but, occasionally, decisively. The slow stuff. The boring stuff. The stuff that does not trend on social media. The checks and balances that are supposed to right wrongs and maintain an even keel on the democratic process will eventually catch up.

This is what Trump and his administration fear most. They currently control the House, the Senate and the Department of Justice, but with the mid-term elections looming and the Democrats already gaining significant momentum, Trump’s cronies are flat out trying to rig the game in their favour through the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act. The key purpose of this bill is to require individuals to provide documentary proof of U.S. citizenship when registering to vote in federal elections. It requires voters to show a valid photo ID to cast a ballot and mandates that states verify citizenship, often requiring in-person registration or documentation rather than just self-attestation.

Critics argue that the SAVE Act could benefit Republicans by reducing participation among certain groups that tend to lean Democratic. They point out that stricter documentation requirements—such as proving citizenship with official records—may disproportionately affect younger voters, lower-income individuals, and some minority groups, many of whom may not have easy access to documents like passports or birth certificates. As a result, even eligible voters could face added hurdles that discourage or prevent them from taking part in elections.

They also highlight broader barriers to registration and voting. Requirements for in-person verification and stricter ID rules could make the registration process more cumbersome, particularly for people with limited time, mobility, or access to government offices. Past examples of similar laws have shown that large numbers of eligible voters can be blocked or deterred from registering. Taken together, some analysts argue these effects could shift the composition of the electorate in ways that may benefit Republicans, especially in closely contested races.

Maintaining political control of the U.S. House and Senate is key to the Trump administration’s plans to reengineer the political system in favour of Republican rule and the possibility of a third Trump presidency despite Section 1 of the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution clearly stating, “No person should be elected to the office of president more than twice.” However, Trump blithely disregards the Constitution, which has been the supreme law of the United States since 1787. It was designed to frame the federal government, its powers and limitations. He also desperately needs to keep control of the legislative, executive, and judicial branches of government to keep ahead of the legal process.

Which leaves us, awkwardly, with a choice. Not a dramatic one, not a revolutionary one, but a quietly demanding one: whether to keep watching the bike, or to start paying attention to what’s really happening and who is really running the show. Because the entertainment provided by Trump is not the future, the reengineering of political systems in the United States is what is real about all this reality show. Eventually, even the sychophantic Republican nutters he has surrounded himself with and who help obfuscate the truth will realise they are destroying the democratic structure that actually made America great and will eventually find their balls…maybe in the Trump ballroom?

Trump can keep pedalling, but he can’t hide. He’s already in top gear and out on the open road pushing into a strong headwind. The thing he fears most is bearing down on him…it’s a new word, one may soon discover and claim as his own…Accountability. In the face of losing public support, former allies turning against him, economic failure, affordability (another word Trump apparently recently discovered), irrelevance, public humiliation, truth, the threat of jail time and being the brunt of late-night TV comics monologues…it’s coming for him, and he will be held accountable. This is why he’s trying to stem media commentary that is not favourable to him and encourage friends to purchase mainstream media outlets to control the messaging. It’s also why he needs to rig elections, for without public support, he’s finished, and the end will come soon, hopefully before the United States is on the trash heap of Trump Failure; Like Trump Airlines, Trump Steak, Trump University, Trump Vodka, Trump Casinos and Trump Underpants

Accountability won’t be kind to Trump, but it is possibly the only thing he’s really earned in his life.

#################################################################################

By Kaitlan Collins: CNN

Kaitlan Collins: American journalist and news anchor at CNN

Look at what they are doing. I swear the Republican Party is trying to tank the midterms. That is the only rational conclusion. Otherwise, the alternative is that they are genuinely this incompetent, this disconnected from reality, and this committed to protecting Trump at any cost.

The economy is still squeezing people with high grocery prices, expensive housing, rising gas prices, and mortgage rates over 7%, so they announce a $5,000 “Trump Dividend” that would cost more than a trillion dollars and require even more borrowing.

Trump promised to end wars, then got us into one with Iran that pushed gas prices higher.

He promised to lower prices, then imposed tariffs that raise costs and now tries to blame everyone else.

Republicans promised fiscal responsibility, then passed tax cuts, increased spending, ran massive deficits, and somehow still want credit for being the party of financial discipline.

In Texas, Republicans have controlled the state for decades, but they are still blaming Democrats for high housing costs, electricity prices, insurance rates, and the consequences of the data-center boom. Abbott had to pause data-center permitting because even Texas Republicans are finally realizing that unlimited corporate growth comes with a bill somebody has to pay.

Then there’s Ken Paxton, the candidate Republicans chose over a safer incumbent because Trump wanted him. Paxton is now in a competitive Senate race that should not even be close. He refuses to debate his opponent, is drowning in scandals, and was just caught on a hot mic admitting that Trump’s Dallas convention hurt his campaign and dropped their numbers.

That’s the guy Trump chose. That’s the guy Republicans are spending millions to protect. And Paxton privately knows Trump is dragging him down.

Then there’s the Republican obsession with attacking Jack Smith. Is this really a good time for the Trump administration and congressional Republicans to remind everyone that Donald Trump tried to overthrow the government because he was too thin-skinned to accept a much-deserved loss?

They are the ones dragging January 6, the 2020 election, and Jack Smith back into the conversation. They are voluntarily reminding voters that Trump tried to overturn a legitimate election, pressure state officials, exploit the Justice Department, and remain in power after losing.

That was not a policy disagreement. That was not a misunderstanding. That was an attack on the peaceful transfer of power because Trump’s ego could not handle taking the L.

And then Eric Schmitt tried to destroy Jack Smith with a dramatic “gotcha” about Smith supposedly being at an Atlanta Hawks game with Fani Willis. Except Smith was actually at an Iowa Hawkeyes women’s basketball game in Maryland.

Schmitt confused two completely different teams, built a conspiracy theory around it, got exposed in real time, and still refused to admit he was wrong.

So the same people screaming about “abuse of power” are now reminding everyone that the person Smith investigated actually attempted to abuse power on an historic scale.

Brilliant strategy.

That is not an isolated mistake. That is the entire MAGA operating system.

Make a dramatic accusation. Celebrate it before checking the facts. Get caught being wrong. Refuse to admit it. Attack anyone who points it out. Then demand that everyone pretend the failure never happened.

They know most of their base will stop at the headline, share the meme, and let the propaganda machine do the thinking for them. Once the fake version has been pumped through Facebook, Fox, and the MAGA content mill, facts are treated like liberal interference.

The goal is not to be right. The goal is to get the lie circulating faster than anyone can correct it.

And here is the part that should bother conservatives who actually believe in conservative principles: almost none of this resembles what Republicans used to claim they stood for.

Fiscal responsibility has become tax cuts, massive deficits, and trillion-dollar checks.

Small government has become government control over schools, universities, elections, private businesses, local policing, health care, and the media.

Free markets have become tariffs, trade wars, corporate favoritism, and government intervention whenever Trump wants to punish a company or reward an ally.

Law and order has become attacking prosecutors, threatening judges, pardoning political allies, and demanding loyalty from the Justice Department.

States’ rights have become federal pressure campaigns against states that disagree with Trump.

Personal responsibility has become a political party that excuses every failure, every lie, every scandal, and every mistake as long as the person responsible is Donald Trump.

Family values have somehow become defending a man with a lifetime of scandals while treating compassion, honesty, and basic decency as weaknesses.

They are using taxpayer money for campaign-style ads. They are relitigating investigations into Trump instead of explaining Trump’s conduct. They are threatening prosecutors, attacking judges, weakening institutions, and calling it accountability.

They are campaigning against socialism while Trump proposes government checks, corporate intervention, protectionist trade policies, and more federal control.

They are still talking about Biden as if he is president, even though Republicans control the White House and Congress. They are blaming Democrats for problems created by their own policies. They are distancing themselves from Trump in competitive races while still needing his base to show up.

The gap between what conservatives claim to believe and what this Republican Party is actually doing is enormous.

They do not want limited government. They want government powerful enough to enforce their cultural preferences.

They do not want fiscal responsibility. They want tax cuts for the wealthy and excuses for the debt.

They do not want free markets. They want a government that picks winners and punishes enemies.

They do not want law and order. They want loyalty to Trump above the law.

And they do not want accountability. They want protection from consequences.

The more they panic, the more they double down on the exact things voters are rejecting.

This is not a normal political strategy. It is a party trapped inside its own media bubble, where admitting one mistake is treated as betrayal and loyalty matters more than competence.

So yes, I swear the Republican Party is trying to tank the midterms.

Because if they are not intentionally trying to lose, then the only other explanation is even worse: they genuinely believe this is what winning looks like.

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